Something changed in June. Middle-class households that had been spending cautiously for months suddenly pulled back even further.
Consumer sentiment among middle-income earners fell 6% in August, with households earning $50,000 to $100,000 shifting to the same cautious outlook that lower-income shoppers have maintained all year. Meanwhile, households earning $250,000 or more now account for 49.2% of all consumer spending, up from 45.7% a decade ago, per Moody’s Analytics. Between September 2023 and September 2024, this group increased spending by 12%, while spending by working-class and middle-class households dropped.
This split is showing up in store traffic, earnings calls, and year-to-date retail performance. Some retailers have adjusted. Others haven’t.
Discounters and value players stand out
Year-to-date American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI®) data show that general merchandise retailers improve across multiple dimensions: overall satisfaction up 1%, in-store pickup climbing 4%, and value perceptions increasing 3%. Warehouse clubs like BJ’s, Costco, and Sam’s Club are well-situated, along with retailers like Burlington, Kohl’s, Meijer, TJX, and Walmart. These companies share a positioning that resonates with budget-conscious shoppers who still expect quality.
The behavioral changes show up clearly in company reports. Walmart has noted that middle- and low-income customers are placing fewer discretionary items in their carts. Dollar General reported increased visits from mid-tier households. Executives across retail, dining, and travel sectors are observing similar patterns among customers who once spent more freely.
Specialty retail follows a similar pattern. Satisfaction has risen 1%, with in-store pickup up 2%. Home Depot, Lowe’s, Michaels, and HomeGoods appear well-positioned for holiday décor competition. Apple Store, Bass Pro Shops, Petco, and Signet show strength across satisfaction, value, and pickup metrics. The performance indicators suggest these retailers have aligned their value propositions with current consumer priorities.
Those tracking these metrics can see which capabilities matter most when household budgets tighten.
Pickup creates unexpected revenue opportunities
The growth of buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) extends beyond pandemic-era convenience. The adoption numbers show permanent behavioral change. Nearly 100 million Americans —34% of all consumers — now use BOPIS regularly. Sales through this channel reached $132.8 billion in 2024, representing nearly 10% of all e-commerce revenue. Projections show BOPIS growing 16.7% annually through 2030, expanding 53.8% faster than e-commerce overall.
The reasons consumers choose BOPIS reveal what matters most right now. Forty-eight percent want to avoid shipping fees. Seventy-seven percent want to see items before taking them home. Half find it more convenient than home delivery, while 46% value the time savings, and 35% need same-day access to their purchases.
However, what really stands out is that 85% of BOPIS shoppers make additional purchases when they arrive to collect their orders. Customers browse while they’re in the store. They compare products in person. They add items to their physical carts that weren’t part of the original online order. What looked like pure logistics has turned into a conversion point.
Younger demographics are driving this adoption curve. Among Millennials, 59% used BOPIS over a 12-month period. Gen Z follows at 57%. For these age groups, combining online research with in-store pickup represents the preferred shopping method rather than a compromise between channels. Retailers with seamless pickup experiences have the infrastructure to capitalize on this preference. Those treating pickup as an operational afterthought may be missing incremental revenue with each transaction.
Near-term execution and longer-term capability building
The immediate holiday timeline offers limited flexibility. Inventory decisions are largely finalized. Marketing campaigns are in motion. Store layouts are being adjusted for seasonal demand. Within these constraints, execution quality becomes the differentiator.
How prominently does BOPIS appear in digital experiences? How smoothly do pickup transactions flow? How naturally do staff create moments for customers to discover additional products?
These operational details matter for the next two months, but the questions extend into 2026. Retailers may want to evaluate whether their fulfillment infrastructure supports efficient store-based shipping. Whether pickup areas are optimized for both speed and conversion. Whether inventory visibility across channels gives customers real-time clarity on what’s available for same-day collection.
Value perception encompasses more than price points. It includes convenience, speed, transparency, and reliability. Customers will accept higher prices when the total experience justifies the cost. They’ll choose discounters when it doesn’t.
ACSI metrics provide visibility into how these elements drive customer loyalty and repurchase behavior. Satisfaction scores indicate the quality of the total experience. Value ratings show whether pricing aligns with expectations. In-store pickup scores measure how well convenience promises translate into execution. Together, these indicators help retailers understand where they’re creating differentiation and where gaps remain.
The retailers gaining market share this season appear to recognize that cost-conscious shoppers need compelling value, while all shoppers increasingly expect convenient options. The difference between retailers who strengthen their position and those who lose ground may come down to how well they read these signals and respond to them.
Holiday 2025 offers a clear test of that ability.
